Get Ready for a Colder Winter: La Niña Is Back in India

This winter, India is likely to experience a sharper chill than usual, particularly in the northern plains and Himalayan regions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, is expected to develop between October and December 2025 and continue into early 2026. La Niña affects global atmospheric circulation, which in turn impacts India’s weather by bringing colder nights, heavier fog, and altered rainfall patterns. Early signs, including snowfall in Himalayan states and decreasing minimum temperatures in northern cities, suggest that citizens will notice a clear change in winter conditions compared to previous years.

La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, in which trade winds intensify across the Pacific, pushing warm surface waters westward and allowing cooler water to rise near South America. These oceanic changes influence global atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns. For India, this often translates into colder winters and changes in the strength and timing of western disturbances, which bring winter rain and snow to northern states. Past La Niña events, such as those in 2020–2021, have shown that temperatures in the Indo-Gangetic plains can drop 1–2 degrees Celsius below normal, with hill stations experiencing early and heavier snowfall.

Northern India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, is expected to experience colder nights and frequent cold waves, while Himalayan regions may witness heavier snowfall. Central and western India may see cooler nights with occasional dry spells affecting soil moisture, and eastern and northeastern states could experience fog and occasional rain. Southern India is likely to experience only marginal changes in winter weather. Forecasts by the IMD and global agencies like the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicate that La Niña’s effects will be most pronounced from December through February, with regional variations based on geography and local atmospheric conditions.

La Niña often benefits India’s rabi crops by improving soil moisture retention and reducing water stress, particularly for wheat, mustard, and pulses. Cooler temperatures lower evapotranspiration, which helps maintain soil moisture, while stable weather supports healthy crop growth. However, dense fog, unexpected rainfall, and early frost can pose risks, potentially delaying harvesting or affecting crop quality. Agricultural agencies such as ICAR are advising farmers on frost protection measures, mulching, and optimal sowing schedules to minimize the impact of cold spells during the winter season.

Urban India may experience denser fog, lower air quality, and increased energy demands for heating. Northern cities like Delhi, Lucknow, and Patna are expected to see visibility-reducing fog and stagnant air conditions, which can exacerbate respiratory illnesses. Transport may be disrupted due to low visibility, affecting flights, trains, and road travel. Despite these challenges, the cooler temperatures reduce energy demand for air conditioning, providing partial relief for power grids, while residents prepare their homes and daily routines for colder mornings and evenings.

La Niña is influenced by natural climate cycles, but its effects are shaped by global warming, which can alter temperature baselines and rainfall patterns. Longer or stronger La Niña events in recent years demonstrate how climate variability interacts with human-induced warming, redistributing heat and moisture across continents. For India, this means the winter may be colder in northern states while southern regions experience minor changes. Enhanced climate monitoring and predictive modeling by IMD and IITM allow citizens, farmers, and policymakers to prepare for seasonal variations and reduce the impact on agriculture, infrastructure, and daily life.

As La Niña returns, India faces a winter that could be colder and more challenging than usual, particularly in northern states. By staying informed through reliable forecasts, preparing homes and heating systems, and supporting vulnerable populations, citizens can mitigate the risks posed by colder temperatures, fog, and potential disruptions. Farmers can optimize crop management and irrigation to take advantage of improved soil moisture, while city administrations strengthen measures for air quality and transport safety. La Niña serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of global climate systems and the importance of preparedness for seasonal changes.

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